To calculate conference projections, I subtracted each team’s conference strength of schedule (ConfSOS) from its preseason power rating (Power). This metric produces an average expectation of point differential (AvgExp) for each conference game for the respective team. Thus, in some cases, teams predicted to be stronger will slip below those rated lower because of a tougher schedule.
Linked is the Stassen Preseason Poll, which combines other conference projections to rank teams. In some cases, like Texas A&M and Florida State, my predictions disagree by several spots in the rankings.
http://preseason.stassen.com/consensus/2010.html#acc
Here are my projections for all eleven conferences.
Thanks for contributing some picks! I’ll admit, I sometimes see one of my results and scratch my head, although there is some logic behind it. Of course, that logic won’t accurately apply to every team. No matter what, I’ll be out on a limb with some of these rankings. Hopefully I am somewhat accurate as the year plays out.
My gut vs. your statistical analysis. I should do predictions on several of the more major and see who does better.
I like most of your picks, but some that I disagree with include:
B10 – I have a difficult time seeing Northwestern finishing 10th out of 11. They seem to find ways to finish in the middle of the pack each year.
B12 North – Interesting you have Kansas 3rd. I’m not hating that pick and it could be a solid one at that spot. I do think KSU finishes in the top 3 of the North though.
B12 South – Difficult to have Texas A&M 6th. They could have the best QB in the B12 this year. I would put them at least over Baylor and Okie State.
SEC East – I think Tennessee surprises teams this year. They have a significant upgrade in their head coach.
PAC 10 – My gut says Standford & Washington are going to finish higher up in the PAC 10 standings, while Oregon State may drop.
ACC Coastal Note – This looks like a very tough division this year.