College Football Notebook 2016

College Football Notebook 2016, a preseason analytics and predictions e-guide produced by McIllece Sports, is now available! Since the file is a 284-page PDF, it is recommended to right click and select “save as” to download a copy to your hard drive.

Download College Football Notebook 2016 (version 1.1b)

Preseason Analytics

• Historical power and recruiting ratings
• Rankings, records, and conference projections
• Score predictions and win probabilities for every game
• 2015 unit ratings and 2016 player weights
• Unique stats and schedule ranks

In-Season Notebook

• Track scores and injuries
• Update strength of schedule and power ratings
• Create custom score predictions for regular season, conference championship, and bowl games
• Evaluate team trends with plus/minus ratings

Don’t agree with the Notebook’s ratings or predictions? Adjust them to create your own power ratings and score predictions for your favorite teams and biggest rivals! College Football Notebook 2016 puts the power of the analyst in your hands. Download and print your free copy today!

Note about rosters

Rosters are always in flux. Significant roster changes and injury information can be tracked in the workbook space at the end of each conference section. Report any roster changes or season-ending injuries to analytics@mcillecesports.com to be included in the next update.

Note about calculating “Game +/- Ratings”

In the right-hand page workbook space, the column for “Game +/- Ratings” describes the required calculation as “Results – Predictions”. It is important to use the preseason predictions in this calculation. Using updated weekly predictions here will not fully account for the difference between the preseason ratings and the in-season results.

Also note that in the “Updated Ratings” space, ProjOff refers to the preseason Offense rating, ProjDef refers to the preseason Defense rating, and ProjPower refers to the preseason Power rating, all available from the left-hand page in the “10-Year History and 1-Year Projection” table.

Email analytics@mcillecesports.com with any questions about filling out the Notebook pages.

Version 1.1b updates

• Made corrections to roster information and experience percentiles
• Updated page numbering to match PDF page numbering
• Corrected wrong schedule showing up in strength of schedule section
• Added preseason power, offense, and defense ratings and projected records to strength of schedule section
• Various typos and misprints

Power, Offense, and Defense Ratings

These are the three primary ratings that measure the quality (or predicted quality) of a team, in terms of points scored and points allowed. They are all schedule-adjusted, meaning that the quality of opposition faced is factored into the calculations.

• Offense = The points scored value of a team’s offense (high is good)
• Defense = The points allowed value of a team’s defense (low is good)
• Power = Offense – Defense. Conceptually, this is the expected margin of victory (or defeat, if negative) versus an average FBS opponent on a neutral field. An average FBS team has a power rating of zero.

Therefore, for a simple estimate of how many points Team1 would score against Team2, add the Offense rating of Team1 to the Defense rating of Team2. This would be equal to the expected Points Scored (PS) for Team1. Analogously, to estimate how many points Team2 would score in that same game against Team1, add Team2’s Offense to Team1’s Defense.

Example

In 2015 Week 1, Alabama played Wisconsin at a neutral site. The final 2015 Offense and Defense ratings for these teams were:

Alabama Offense = 26.8
Alabama Defense = -3.1

Wisconsin Offense = 14.2
Wisconsin Defense = -0.2

Alabama (Expected) Points Scored = 26.8 + (-0.2) = 26.6 ≈ 27
Wisconsin (Expected) Points Scored = 14.2 + (-3.1) = 11.1 ≈ 11
Alabama (Expected) Margin of Victory = 27 – 11 = 16

Since 11 is an unusual point total, a reasonable score expectation for this matchup might be Alabama 27, Wisconsin 10. The final score in that game was 35 – 17, an 18 point Alabama win. Both teams basically scored an extra TD over the expected score line.

The right-hand notebook page for each team includes formulas that refine this a bit (using 0.984 as a multiplier and factoring in home-field advantage to give the home team a boost), but the concept is the same.