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College Football Notebook 2017

College Football Notebook 2017, a preseason analytics and predictions e-guide produced by McIllece Sports, is now available! Since the file is a 288-page PDF, it is recommended to right click and select “save as” to download a copy to your hard drive.

Link: College Football Notebook 2017

Preseason Analytics

In-Season Notebook

Don’t agree with the Notebook’s ratings or predictions? Adjust them to create your own power ratings and score predictions for your favorite teams and biggest rivals! College Football Notebook 2017 puts the power of the analyst in your hands. Download and print your free copy today!

Note about rosters

Rosters are always in flux. Significant roster changes and injury information can be tracked in the workbook space at the end of each conference section. The roster information included in the 2017 Notebook was based on official team sites as of mid to late May and reflects the information used to make all 2017 McIllece Sports predictions.

While not exactly a roster change, the one exception to this rule was the retirement of Bob Stoops at Oklahoma. The 2017 Notebook does show Lincoln Riley as the new head coach. All other figures and information about the Sooners, however, were based on the assumption of Coach Stoops leading them in 2017.

2017 modifications

The following modifications were implemented with the release of the 2017 Notebook:

Note about calculating “Game +/- Ratings”

In the right-hand page workbook space, the column for “Game +/- Ratings” describes the required calculation as “Results – Predictions”. It is important to use the preseason predictions in this calculation. Using updated weekly predictions here will not fully account for the difference between the preseason ratings and the in-season results.

Email with any questions about filling out the Notebook pages.

Power, Offense, and Defense Ratings

These are the three primary ratings that measure the quality (or predicted quality) of a team, in terms of points scored and points allowed. They are all schedule-adjusted, meaning that the quality of opposition faced is factored into the calculations.

Therefore, for a simple estimate of how many points Team1 would score against Team2, add the Offense rating of Team1 to the Defense rating of Team2. This would be equal to the expected Points Scored (PS) for Team1. Analogously, to estimate how many points Team2 would score in that same game against Team1, add Team2’s Offense to Team1’s Defense.


In 2015 Week 1, Alabama played Wisconsin at a neutral site. The final 2015 Offense and Defense ratings for these teams were:

Alabama Offense = 26.8
Alabama Defense = -3.1

Wisconsin Offense = 14.2
Wisconsin Defense = -0.2

Alabama (Expected) Points Scored = 26.8 + (-0.2) = 26.6 ≈ 27
Wisconsin (Expected) Points Scored = 14.2 + (-3.1) = 11.1 ≈ 11
Alabama (Expected) Margin of Victory = 27 – 11 = 16

Since 11 is an unusual point total, a reasonable score expectation for this matchup might be Alabama 27, Wisconsin 10. The final score in that game was 35 – 17, an 18 point Alabama win. Both teams basically scored an extra TD over the expected score line.

The right-hand notebook page for each team includes formulas that refine this a bit (using 0.984 as a multiplier and factoring in home-field advantage to give the home team a boost), but the concept is the same.

Archived Notebooks
College Football Notebook 2016


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