Expected Win Totals

Want to know what to expect for your favorite team, given their results so far? Check back each week to see rolling win totals (regular season) based on current record. All these expected win totals are powered by the 100,000 preseason simulations of the College Football Atlas 2018.

Expected Win Totals

How it works…

Each team starts with a preseason record expectation. Then they play some games, they win some and they lose some, and every result impacts their expected win total on the year. The College Football Atlas, utilizing 100,000 simulations, has already accounted for the vast majority of the possibilities of what might happen in 2018 before a single snap or kickoff took place. With each team win or loss, the team’s expected record changes, as the possibilities narrow and the Atlas homes in on the final record.

Come back each week to see how big upsets or wins over your rivals affects your team’s win-loss record!

^cancelled game that hasn’t been rescheduled or replaced
*13-game regular season schedule (Hawai’i rule)2

2018 Week 1 Predictions

2018 Week 1 predictions & win probabilities

THURSDAY, AUGUST 30

#21 UCF 45 (92%)
at UCONN 23

New Mexico State 7
at Minnesota 38 (96%)

Conn. State 21
at Ball State 38 (87%)

Kennesaw State 25
at Georgia State 26 (51%)

SE Louisiana 27
at ULM 44 (86%)

Northwestern 25 (59%)
at Purdue 21

Wake Forest 30 (60%)
at Tulane 26

Savannah State 12
at UAB 51 (99%)

Missouri State 9
Oklahoma State 49 (99%)

Weber State 18
at Utah 34 (85%)

Northwestern State 3
at Texas A&M 56 (100%)

UC Davis 26
at San Jose State 36 (74%)

FRIDAY, AUGUST 31

Syracuse 37 (61%)
at Western Michigan 32

Monmouth 14
at Eastern Michigan 32 (87%)

Utah State 9
at #11 Michigan State 37 (96%)

Army 24
at Duke 40 (88%)

Western Kentucky 7
at #4 Wisconsin 46 (99%)

San Diego State 21
at #13 Stanford 34 (81%)

Portland State 18
at Nevada 44 (95%)

Colorado State 27
vs Colorado 35 (70%)

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 1

Oregon State 16
at #5 Ohio State 53 (99%)

Florida Atlantic 27
at #7 Oklahoma 38 (76%)

Southern 0
at #16 TCU 55 (100%)

#23 Texas 35 (73%)
vs Maryland 25

Kent State 13
at Illinois 32 (89%)

Texas State 12
at Rutgers 33 (90%)

Coastal Carolina 12
at South Carolina 47 (99%)

Ole Miss 33 (56%)
vs Texas Tech 31

James Madison 29
at NC State 36 (67%)

Villanova 19
at Temple 33 (82%)

Houston 35 (84%)
at Rice 20

Furman 3
at #2 Clemson 47 (100%)

Alcorn State 10
at Georgia Tech 54 (100%)

UMASS 20
at Boston College 45 (93%)

Stony Brook 33
at Air Force 36 (57%)

Howard 12
at Ohio 52 (99%)

Austin Peay 0
at #3 Georgia 55 (100%)

#6 Washington 31 (62%)
vs #9 Auburn 27

App State 18
at #10 Penn State 40 (92%)

Albany 7
at Pittsburgh 38 (97%)

Marshall 25 (58%)
at Miami OH 22

Central Michigan 18
at Kentucky 40 (91%)

Northern Illinois 16
at Iowa 36 (88%)

Washington State 17
at Wyoming 22 (62%)

Tennessee 28
vs #17 West Virginia 31 (58%)

UNLV 17
at #15 USC 44 (96%)

North Carolina 27
at California 29 (54%)

UT Martin 16
at Missouri 49 (98%)

Eastern Illinois 13
at Arkansas 52 (99%)

#22 Boise State 31 (73%)
at Troy 22

Old Dominion 30 (71%)
at Liberty 21

Fordham 14
at Charlotte 34 (90%)

North Carolina A&T 28
at East Carolina 35 (68%)

Elon 13
at South Florida 40 (95%)

Richmond 18
at Virginia 34 (85%)

Delaware State 3
at Buffalo 49 (100%)

South Carolina State 10
at Georgia Southern 46 (99%)

Grambling 23
at Louisiana 39 (85%)

VMI 7
at Toledo 59 (100%)

SE Missouri State 17
at Arkansas State 43 (94%)

Mercer 15
at Memphis 43 (96%)

Central Arkansas 28
at Tulsa 34 (65%)

Louisiana Tech 28 (64%)
South Alabama 23

Jackson State 7
at Southern Miss 47 (99%)

Cincinnati 27
at UCLA 36 (74%)

Indiana 38 (83%)
at FIU 23

Nicholls State 14
at Kansas 41 (95%)

South Dakota 20
at Kansas State 33 (80%)

#14 Michigan 24 (53%)
at #12 Notre Dame 23

Stephen F. Austin 0
at #18 Mississippi State 58 (100%)

Charleston Southern 7
at Florida 46 (99%)

MTSU 25
at Vanderbilt 26 (53%)

SMU 35
at North Texas 37 (56%)

Northern Arizona 29 (65%)
at UTEP 23

Louisville 25
vs #1 Alabama 35 (87%)

Bowling Green 19
at #24 Oregon 50 (97%)

Akron 18
at Nebraska 38 (91%)

Abilene Christian 6
at Baylor 55 (100%)

South Dakota State 19
at Iowa State 28 (73%)

Incarnate Word 10
at New Mexico 47 (99%)

Idaho 12
at Fresno State 42 (97%)

UTSA 15
at Arizona State 38 (93%)

BYU 25
at Arizona 34 (73%)

Navy 40 (91%)
at Hawai’i 22

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 2

#8 Miami FL 24 (55%)
vs #25 LSU 22

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 3

#20 Virginia Tech 23
at #19 Florida State 26 (57%)