2019 Expected Win Totals

Want to know what to expect for your favorite team, given their results so far? Check back each week to see rolling win totals (regular season) based on current record. All these expected win totals are powered by the 100,000 preseason simulations of the College Football Atlas 2019.

How it works…

Each team starts with a preseason record expectation. Then they play some games, they win some and they lose some, and every result impacts their expected win total on the year. The College Football Atlas, utilizing 100,000 simulations, has already accounted for the vast majority of the possibilities of what might happen in 2019 before a single snap or kickoff. With each team win or loss, the team’s expected record changes, as the possibilities narrow and the Atlas homes in on the final record. Note that these expected record results are based ONLY on wins and losses, NOT on game scores.

After each week is completed, win expectations will be updated to reflect how the game results affected each team.

Check the Expected Win Totals page to see how big upsets or wins over your rivals affect your team’s win-loss record!

2019 Week 0 Matchup Charts

Visualize the “Week Zero” college football matchups (Hawai’i at Arizona and Miami vs Florida) in the charts below. Characteristics of each team in the game are displayed in a single chart:

  • Bar charts show each unit’s 2018 efficiency percentile on a [0,100] scale.
  • Line charts show each unit’s returning experience percentage on a [0,100] scale.


All-Conference Coaching Staff: ACC

To no one’s surprise, Clemson dominates the All-ACC coaching staff…and they do so at a higher level than any other team in any other conference, capturing the head coach slot (Dabo Swinney), as well as co-coordinators on both offense and defense. The choice between Clemson’s Brent Venables and Virginia Tech’s Bud Foster is virtually impossible, so they share responsibility at DC/LB. Perhaps the biggest upset is Florida State nabbing three spots on the list–Willie Taggart may not have a high grade, but he has cobbled together a quality staff overall.

Get the full 2019 College Football Atlas preview, 800+ pages of analytics, 6 teams for EVERY FBS team: