With the gates of the Transfer Portal swinging open, confidence picks for the bowl games are increasingly complex.
This year, though it caused some delays, we implemented updated methodology to capture the effects of all the bowl game opt-outs, transfers, and known injuries.
Players who have entered the Transfer Portal are generally considered unavailable for the bowl game in these ratings, except in cases where players have indicated that they will remain with their current team through the bowl game. James Madison is a good example of the latter: Most of the Transfer Portal players are expected to play, according to recent reports, including QB Jordan McCloud.
If a particular confidence / win probability seems surprising, it is likely due to the cumulative effects of roster attrition heading into the bowl game.
Good luck in your bowl pickem leagues, and happy holidays!
