π-ratings are power ratings based on changes in play-by-play win probabilities throughout a game, naturally deemphasizing non-competitive game situations without applying arbitrary cutoffs. π-ratings are adjusted for strength of schedule and represent the probability of beating an average FBS opponent (i.e., a team with a 50% π-rating) on a neutral field.
π-ratings strike a natural balance between Elo-style ranking systems that only account for wins and losses, good for explaining past results, and pure points-based systems that are designed for predicting future outcomes.
To access the data and a matchup simulator, which allows you to estimate the win probability of any hypothetical FBS matchup, download the “pirating21.xlsx” Excel workbook below. The download is free but requires Microsoft Excel to use. (The simulator is in beta version; email analytics@mcillecesports.com for support.)
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