π-Ratings

π-ratings are power ratings based on changes in play-by-play win probabilities throughout a game, naturally deemphasizing non-competitive game situations without applying arbitrary cutoffs. π-ratings are adjusted for strength of schedule and represent the probability of beating an average FBS opponent (i.e., a team with a 50% π-rating) on a neutral field.

π-ratings strike a natural balance between Elo-style ranking systems that only account for wins and losses, good for explaining past results, and pure points-based systems that are designed for predicting future outcomes.