COLLEGE FOOTBALL ATLAS ACCURACY TRACKER – 2019 REGULAR SEASON
Expected Records are based on the College Football Atlas 2019 win probability projections of every game. As an example, if there are ten games showing a 70% win probability, then the expected record of those ten games would be 7-3. The same calculations are done for all the 2019 regular season games.
Put simply, if the orange line tracks the blue line well as the season goes on, then the win probabilities are accurate. I will post the updated plots and records each week.
After week 7, the Atlas is 13 games ahead of expectation. That will probably partially correct itself as the season wears on, but if not, that suggests that the win probabilities underestimated the favored teams’ chance of winning each game.
Year-to-Date Expected Record: 347-94 (78.7%)
Year-to-Date Observed Record: 360-81 (81.6%)
The Expected Record for the entire regular season is 633-205 (75.5%). Half games in the Observed Record result when I predicted a tie in regulation for that game. I count those as 0.5 wins and 0.5 losses equally.
College Football Atlas, the biggest college football preview in the country, is back for 2019!
A full six pages per team, three times the size of print magazines, loaded with cutting-edge analytics. Over 800 pages. Streamlined from last year to enhance the user experience, focusing on stats that are easy to understand, applicable to both players and coaches, and far more informative than the usual box-score data you see elsewhere.
Check out the free sample pages for San Jose State to see what the Atlas has to offer.
BRAND NEW FOR 2019
- A full Coaching Staff page, complete with coaching ratings (from head coaches to coordinators to assistants) based on their entire FBS coaching histories, and coaching networks to show all the complex trees and branches of the coaching community. Based on the only-one-of-its-kind McIllece Sports coaching staff database, which has complete coaching staff information for all FBS teams from 2005 to 2019.
- An all-new grading system to make comparisons easier than ever. Percentile (0 to 100) and Letter Grades (F to A+) for all coaches and players, including breakouts by position, offense, defense, and special teams.
- New advanced statistics (Efficiency and Experience) that are easily understood and uniformly applied to all coaches and players.
- A detailed data dictionary to explain any unfamiliar concepts.
- 2019 recruiting classes, with 0-100 percentiles based on meaningful statistical distributions, instead of the arbitrary grading systems used by various recruiting services.
- New easy-to-interpret strength of schedule and continuity metrics (applied to offense, defense, special teams, and coaching staffs…a feature unique to McIllece Sports).
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