The reigning champion of college football predictions has returned for the 2023 season!*
From the most accurate playoff forecaster in CFP history, the 2023 College Football Atlas strives to be the most inventive, original, and analytical preview on the market.
Consider these results:
Using the preseason game-by-game predictions from last year’s magazine, released in July 2022, compared to the in-season (game-week) lines of all FBS vs FBS games with betting odds available, the Atlas won big:
375 – 337 ATS (against the spread)
+12% ROI (return on investment) moneyline
Compared to odds that had the significant advantage of all the in-season game results incorporated into them, the Atlas still beat the market by a substantial margin.
And from our over/under picks, against totals from 8/26/22, all drawn from the 2022 Atlas:
O/U Record: 65 – 39 – 4 (+26)
Premium results from the premier analytics preview in the country.
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Free preview of the #9 Texas Longhorns 2023 College Football Atlas Sample Download
The Transfer Portal era of college football fully gripped the sport in 2022. As the game evolves so must analytics and prediction methods. The days of simply computing returning percentages of yards and calling it an experience rating are gone. It is incumbent upon prognosticators to adapt to the changing CFB landscape.
That’s what we continue to do at mcillecesports.com.
Last year, we radically altered our prediction methods to account for the impact of the Transfer Portal, a risk that paid off as the 2022 College Football Atlas predictions ranked #1 in the nation.
This season, the improvements continue. While not dramatically overhauling models as in 2022 (since there has not been the same kind of seismic shift), the Atlas refined many of the experimental models from last year, honing the statistics based on lessons learned, and incorporating new offensive line metrics that allow for true player-level ratings and blocking system insight that was not available in past seasons. Now you can see which teams rely on great QB play, including scrambling ability and passing efficiency, versus which teams depend on the big boys up front to provide a clean pocket for their signal-caller.
Checking in at 558 pages, the 2023 College Football Atlas dwarfs other preseason magazines.
Four pages of power ratings, moneylines, point spreads, over/under valuations, player efficiency ratings, unit projections, record probabilities, and more are included for all 133 FBS teams (welcome, Jax State and Sam Houston!). Full conference projections comprise all the divisional and championship odds you need to make smart choices against the market. And of course, no preview would be complete without a full ranking projection – with probabilities – of the final College Football Playoff top 4 and top 25.
The magazine leverages our proprietary CFB Coaches Database to produce unique coaching ratings for every phase of the game, relating unit efficiency rates to game-by-game win probabilities. Nowhere else can you dig into such granular detail of how a team’s coaching systems work. How much does Colorado’s new offensive system rely on QB rush efficiency? How does USC’s explosive passing attack translate into chances of winning a game? The answers are inside.
Features & Enhancements
- The most advanced & comprehensive analytics of any college football preview
- New, state-of-the-art offensive line metrics to compute the best individual blocking statistics on the market
- The return of a classic: Coaching Networks! Improved to account for the entire coaching staff instead of only the head coach
- Career roster performance analytics based on a Bayesian projection system that reflects the reality of the Transfer Portal era
- Coaching staff & unit projections for each phase of the game
- Game-by-game point spreads, moneylines & win probabilities
- Expanded concepts & definitions pages to better explain the analytical concepts and why they matter
- Complete over/under matrix & division/conference odds for all teams
- College Football Playoff odds projections
- Cutting-edge power rating system based on play-by-play win probabilities instead of final scores, improved to downweight outlier game results
- Four color pages per team, twice as many as any other college football preview
- Countless other stats, figures & ratings that you won’t find anywhere else
Want to see more before picking up a copy? Check out the free sample pages for the Texas Longhorns, the top playoff contender in the Big XII:
2023 College Football Atlas Sample Download: #9 Texas
*mcillecesports.com had the most accurate conference predictions of the 2022 season: https://stassen.com/preseason/prediction-accuracy/2022.html
*mcillecesports.com has correctly picked 19 of 36 (53%) playoff teams in the 9-year history of the College Football Playoff. Lindy’s has also correctly identified 19 of 36 teams. No other preseason predictor or magazine has scored higher than 16. Acclaimed prognosticator Phil Steele has correctly picked 14 of 36 playoff teams (39%). https://stassen.com/preseason/consensus/
Note about printing: The 2023 College Football Atlas is optimized for digital viewing and is not in standard print dimensions. If you wish to print any of the pages from the digital magazine, please ensure you select “fit to page” or other appropriate scaling options for your printing needs.