College football predictions and analytics. Stassen Poll contributor since 2012.
ODDS ratings measure how each phase contributes to percent chance of winning or losing college football games. ODDS ratings naturally capture how well team phases perform during critical and competitive moments of a game; once a game is no longer competitive, the play-by-play effects on ODDS ratings are negligible, so tacking on meaningless yards or touchdowns while up 35 in the fourth quarter doesn’t boost the team’s ratings (or penalize the losing team any further).
The acronym ODDS represents:
O = OFFENSE (RUSH* / PASS) D = DEFENSE (RUSH / PASS) D = DISCIPLINE (PENALTIES + TIMEOUTS) S = SPECIAL TEAMS (ALL PHASES**)
Summing the ODDS ratings yields how much the team’s record is above or below 50%. Therefore, the maximum ODDS rating is 50% (undefeated teams), and the minimum ODDS rating is -50% (winless teams).
EX: An 8-2 team has an 80% win percentage. Their ODDS total is 80% – 50% = +30% through ten games.
2021 Final ODDS ratings (mcillecesports.com)
*Sacks are counted as pass plays **2-point conversions are included in special teams