The starting point of every basic college football prediction is how good the team was a year ago. From there, we can incorporate all kinds of predictors, like talent level, returning production/experience, coaching changes, etc.
The stability at the very top of the college football world (College Football Playoff) has disguised the tremendous volatility that is happening beneath it. Every year, teams rise and fall in power rankings, in some cases by stunning numbers.
Here is a preseason look at rising and falling teams for the 2022 season. The Rank +/- shows how many power ranking slots a team is projected to rise or fall this year.
Quite a few Pac-12 programs are on the ascendancy: Arizona, USC, Stanford, and Washington. As is a college football blueblood – the Florida State Seminoles.
Notables expected to fade this year include a trio of Big XII teams: Oklahoma State, Baylor, and 6Iowa State,