Game Ratings

Weekly FBS college football game ratings [FINAL for 2025]

  • Team ID: Numeric team identifier. Useful for filtering out teams with similar names, such as Michigan and Western Michigan.
  • Control (%): Total percent of game vs listed opponent that was “controlled” by the team. Control is based on win probability changes throughout the game. Control is always greater than 50% for the winning team.
  • Grade (%): Game Grade, on a 0 – 100% scale, based on Control (%) and adjusted for opponent and location. The Game Grade reflects how a team with that π-Rating would be expected to perform in the same game.
  • Weight (%): How much weight is applied to this game when constructing in-season π-Ratings. Outliers are downweighted relative to other games to minimize the effects of unusual results on the team’s overall rating.

ADDITIONAL DETAILS

  • Control (%)
    • Specifically, Control is calculated as the total magnitude of a team’s positive win probability movements divided by the total magnitude of all win probability movements in a game.
    • Generally, Control > 60% is a dominant performance, and games close to 50% were highly competitive, regardless of the final score. Some games were closer than the final score suggests, and vice versa.
  • Grade (%)
    • Example 1: If a team has a Game Grade of 50%, they performed like an average FBS team in that particular game.
    • Example 2: If a team has a Game Grade of 95%, they performed like a borderline Top 10 team in that particular game.
  • Weight (%)
    • Example: If a team has three games with a 50% grade and one game with a 90% grade, the latter game will be downweighted, as it seems to be an outlier performance. This can occur for many reasons, including natural game-to-game variability, extreme turnover activity, unlikely penalties or special teams effects, short-term injuries, etc.
    • Weights vary throughout the season as more game results are incorporated. The sum of a team’s weights equals 100%.
  • Week
    • All bowl/playoff games are listed as “Week 16” in the current version of the table.