The Audibles are a series of short-form research articles about thorny issues in college football analytics Calculating Unbiased Game Control The vague concept of Game Control (GC) entered the college football lexicon in 2014, the inaugural season of the four-team College Football Playoff. The ESPN Analytics group, a fledgling component of the company, created this … Continue reading Audibles: Calculating Unbiased Game Control →

Wrapping up the analytics from the college football season, here are the final win probability-based power ratings of 2023. As expected, the undefeated national champion Michigan Wolverines are #1. Maybe unexpectedly, the 12-2 Oregon Ducks sit in the #2 slot, despite two close losses to CFP Championship participant Washington. CFP semifinalists Alabama and Texas round … Continue reading 2023 Final College Football Power Ratings →

With the gates of the Transfer Portal swinging open, confidence picks for the bowl games are increasingly complex. This year, though it caused some delays, we implemented updated methodology to capture the effects of all the bowl game opt-outs, transfers, and known injuries. Players who have entered the Transfer Portal are generally considered unavailable for … Continue reading 2023 Bowl Picks with Confidence Points →

Heading into conference championship weekend, there is a new #1 team in our power ratings: The 11-1 Oregon Ducks have supplanted the Michigan Wolverines as the best football team in the nation, peaking at the right time as the College Football Playoff looms. Before the Ducks can reserve a slot in the semifinals, they must … Continue reading 2023 Championship Week Power Ratings →

The Black Friday edition of the power ratings finds Oregon inching up on Michigan for the #1 spot. Of course, #5 Ohio State can change things by toppling the Wolverines in The Game. For a score prediction between two teams, compute the difference between their power ratings, and add 2.3 for home field advantage. A … Continue reading 2023 Week 13 Power Ratings →