Week 4 power ratings are listed below, and yes, some of them are startling! Alabama at #1 seems like absolute madness, right? There are a few reasons for power ratings that seem to defy common sense early in the year: These ratings are predictive, not retrodictive, so preseason ratings have about 50% weight for most … Continue reading 2023 Week 4 Power Ratings →

Week 3 power ratings are listed below. To create a net score prediction between two teams, compute the difference between their power ratings, and add 2.2 for home-field advantage, where applicable. (Updated to include Colorado State, who was omitted from the first version because they have only played one game.)

The College Football season returns in one week! Below are our complete FBS win-total picks for the 2023 season, based on current odds and the Over/Under Matrix from the College Football Atlas preseason magazine. Last season's posted picks went 65-39-4 (+26). Note that some of these picks do NOT have plus expected value, because the … Continue reading 2023 Over-Under Picks →

The Audibles are a series of short-form research articles about thorny issues in college football analytics Accounting for Error in Preseason Predictions If you are a college football fan, you have probably dropped by the ESPN-FPI (Football Power Index) page to peruse power rankings and championship probabilities. It presents a lot of interesting information: power … Continue reading Audibles: Accounting for Error in Preseason Predictions →

The reigning champion of college football predictions has returned for the 2023 season!* From the most accurate playoff forecaster in CFP history, the 2023 College Football Atlas strives to be the most inventive, original, and analytical preview on the market. Consider these results: Using the preseason game-by-game predictions from last year's magazine, released in July 2022, compared … Continue reading The 2023 College Football Atlas has landed →