Week 4 power ratings are listed below, and yes, some of them are startling! Alabama at #1 seems like absolute madness, right? There are a few reasons for power ratings that seem to defy common sense early in the year: These ratings are predictive, not retrodictive, so preseason ratings have about 50% weight for most … Continue reading 2023 Week 4 Power Ratings
Category: College Football
2023 Week 3 Power Ratings
Week 3 power ratings are listed below. To create a net score prediction between two teams, compute the difference between their power ratings, and add 2.2 for home-field advantage, where applicable. (Updated to include Colorado State, who was omitted from the first version because they have only played one game.)
2023 Over-Under Picks
The College Football season returns in one week! Below are our complete FBS win-total picks for the 2023 season, based on current odds and the Over/Under Matrix from the College Football Atlas preseason magazine. Last season's posted picks went 65-39-4 (+26). Note that some of these picks do NOT have plus expected value, because the … Continue reading 2023 Over-Under Picks
Audibles: Accounting for Error in Preseason Predictions
The Audibles are a series of short-form research articles about thorny issues in college football analytics Accounting for Error in Preseason Predictions If you are a college football fan, you have probably dropped by the ESPN-FPI (Football Power Index) page to peruse power rankings and championship probabilities. It presents a lot of interesting information: power … Continue reading Audibles: Accounting for Error in Preseason Predictions
The 2023 College Football Atlas has landed
The reigning champion of college football predictions has returned for the 2023 season!* From the most accurate playoff forecaster in CFP history, the 2023 College Football Atlas strives to be the most inventive, original, and analytical preview on the market. Consider these results: Using theĀ preseasonĀ game-by-game predictions from last year's magazine, released in July 2022, compared … Continue reading The 2023 College Football Atlas has landed