The College Football season returns in one week! Below are our complete FBS win-total picks for the 2023 season, based on current odds and the Over/Under Matrix from the College Football Atlas preseason magazine. Last season's posted picks went 65-39-4 (+26). Note that some of these picks do NOT have plus expected value, because the … Continue reading 2023 Over-Under Picks →

The Audibles are a series of short-form research articles about thorny issues in college football analytics Accounting for Error in Preseason Predictions If you are a college football fan, you have probably dropped by the ESPN-FPI (Football Power Index) page to peruse power rankings and championship probabilities. It presents a lot of interesting information: power … Continue reading Audibles: Accounting for Error in Preseason Predictions →

The reigning champion of college football predictions has returned for the 2023 season!* From the most accurate playoff forecaster in CFP history, the 2023 College Football Atlas strives to be the most inventive, original, and analytical preview on the market. Consider these results: Using the preseason game-by-game predictions from last year's magazine, released in July 2022, compared … Continue reading The 2023 College Football Atlas has landed →

The Audibles are a series of short-form research articles about thorny issues in college football analytics Assigning OL Gaps to Run Plays Box score data only lists the game totals for ball carriers and their rushing plays: attempts, yards, first downs, touchdowns, and fumbles. Play-by-play (PBP) data offers more granularity but is still restricted to … Continue reading Audibles: Assigning OL Gaps to Run Plays →

Although it's the college football offseason, a lot has been happening behind the scenes at mcillecesports.com. Want to learn about your favorite team's new coaches? Coach Ratings, covering all FBS head coaches, coordinators, and full-time assistant coaches, have been updated with full analytical results from the 2022 season at mcillecesports.com/coach-rating. The ratings go back to … Continue reading Coach Ratings Updates →