2016 Top 25 & Conference Predictions

McIllece Sports #2 again in 2015

McIllece Sports finished 2nd out of 21 magazines and websites in the 2015 Stassen Poll, long the standard of measuring college football prediction accuracy:

2015 Stassen Poll top five

  1. Arena Fanatic
  2. McIllece Sports
  3. Phil Steele
  4. Athlon | GamePlan

Similarly, McIllece Sports finished 2nd out of 22 magazines and websites in the 2014 Stassen Poll:

2014 Stassen Poll top five

  1. Phil Steele
  2. McIllece Sports
  3. PickSix Previews | USA Today
  4. Cap Heresy

Best average finish of past two years

With an average ranking of #2 over the past two years, McIllece Sports ties Phil Steele (#3 in 2015, #1 in 2014) with the most accurate college football predictions in those two seasons combined.

The next closest set of predictions over the past two years comes from PickSix Previews, which tied for 3rd in 2014 (USA Today) and tied for 6th in 2015 (ESPN, Sports Illustrated, Wrathell’s CPA Rankings).

2016 Predictions

The McIllece Sports top 25 and divisional predictions are posted below. These predictions can also be found (without preceding text) on the Season Predictions page.

In the divisional standings tables, AvgRank is the team’s average finish from 70,000 full season simulations, and Championship % is how often they won they division in those simulations. The predicted order of finish in each division is based on AvgRank.

top 25 predictions

top 25 predictions

division champ probabilities

division champ probabilities

8 thoughts on “2016 Top 25 & Conference Predictions

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  3. Can there be some explanation of what the numbers in the College Football Notebook are? Such as, what does “power” “offense”, and “defense” mean? Not what the words themselves mean but how the numbers relate to them, how the numbers are derived. Thanks for all your work!

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