2023 Week 5 Power Ratings

The rollercoaster of early-season (predictive) power ratings continues to present some unexpected results.

The Pac-12 and Big Ten have the inside tracks to the College Football Playoff. Those two conferences are the most likely to land not only one, but two, teams in the CFP, while the SEC has fallen from its usual perch atop the field.

Well outside the top 25, reigning two-time champ Georgia continues to be savaged by the softness of their schedule. There is plenty of time to make up ground for the Dawgs, but they need a couple convincing wins over the next two weeks to move up in the “mind” of the algorithmic rating system.

For a score prediction between two teams, compute the difference between their power ratings, and add 2.3 for home field advantage. (This is up from 2.2 in last week’s post. The model changes slightly when new data is added.)