2025 Preseason Power Ratings

Current FBS college football power ratings [updated 8/21/25]

• FBS: Division 1 (D1) college football subdivision indicator variable. Use FBS = 1 to include only FBS teams. Use FBS = 0 to include only FCS teams.
• Rank: Power rank within team’s D1 subdivision (FBS or FCS). Sorting by Rank without filtering can cause FBS and FCS teams to become intermingled.
• π-Rating: Probability of beating an average team at a neutral site. This nonlinear rating is computed by evaluating play-by-play changes in win probability and naturally adds more or less weight based on the importance of the game situation. Essentially, this is a power rating based on game control, not points. π-Ratings for FBS and FCS teams are relative to their own subdivision only; i.e., an FBS team’s π-Rating is the probability of beating an average FBS team, and an FCS team’s π-Rating is the probability of beating an average FCS team, at a neutral site.
• % Change: Change in π-Rating compared to preseason rating (from 2025 College Football Atlas). This shows how much teams are over/underperforming relative to preseason Atlas expectations.
• Power Rating: Expected net score (i.e., “margin of victory”) versus an average FBS team at a neutral site. This is a function of the π-Rating, linearized into a points concept that can be used for predicting net score between any two D1 teams. Add 2.7 points for home field advantage. Unlike π-Rating, both FBS and FCS teams are on the same points scale for Power Rating, allowing for net score predictions between FBS and FCS teams.
• Change: Change in Power Rating compared to preseason rating (from 2025 College Football Atlas). To adjust Atlas preseason lines, simply subtract the Change value for the team and add the Change value for their opponent.

Early-season power ratings will fluctuate quite a bit, and they are especially vulnerable to outliers, such as a blowout win or loss. Preseason predictions have more weight early in the year to mitigate outlier effects. Preseason weight phases out as more games are played and the power rating estimation system becomes convergent.

Beginning in Week 5, iterative strength of schedule adjustments and unequal game weighting (which enables outlier detection) are applied.

Prior to Week 5, due to sparse interconnectivity, strength of schedule is based solely on preseason power ratings, and each game result is weighted equally.

Note: These ratings are predictive in nature. See the Merit Ratings page for a ranking based purely on in-season accomplishments, akin to a traditional Top 25 or CFP Ranking. Merit Ratings are not posted until after Week 4.